Why Not Do What Works?

  • Business as usual when usual threatens to wipe out livelihoods, cultures and civilizations is just plain stupid. Vietnam, a nation of 90-something million people, has yet to have its first death from SARS-CoV2.
  • Look what Zog do!

Vietnam. The country of 97 million people has not reported a single coronavirus-related death and on Saturday had just 328 confirmed cases, despite its long border with China and the millions of Chinese visitors it receives each year.

This is all the more remarkable considering Vietnam is a low-middle income country with a much less-advanced healthcare system than others in the region. It only has 8 doctors for every 10,000 people, a third of the ratio in South Korea, according to the World Bank.

After a three-week nationwide lockdown, Vietnam lifted social distancing rules in late April. It hasn’t reported any local infections for more than 40 days. Businesses and schools have reopened, and life is gradually returning to normal.

On Herd Immunity: or Not

Path of least resistance AND looking at new ways of getting information (mostly for me) out of my “second brain” of Roam Research (“networked tool for thought) and into a place that has at least a weak possibility of finding its way into other minds and unlikely conversation:

So I will, from time to time, post stuff in this fashion. In this instance, all “highlights” are pulled directly from the long article to help me better understand the content. In future, at times, I will add my own commentary. FWIW.

►Most important info here: learn about Rt versus R0 (R Nought) and what they mean with regard to COVID rise and fall.

In Roam, I will further digest such a piece via “progressive summarization” so that I have some level of mastery of the details. But enough, already.

Article:: Dangerous misunderstandings by [[Dr. Felicia Keesing]]

Dangerous misunderstandings | Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies

  • Tags:: #roam_highlighter #pandemic #prevention
  • See also graphs by state of Rt Rt: Effective Reproduction Number
    • 📌FBF: this is really worth a look!
  • See also Herd immunity | Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies
  • Highlights::
    • def: Rt, the effective reproduction number
    • What does it mean to say that Rt is less than one?
      • It means that if 10 people were infected, they’d infect only 9 others (in the case of Rt = 0.9) or 8 others (in the case of Rt = 0.8). Whenever Rt is less than one, there will be fewer and fewer infected people over time. The further Rt is below one, the faster this decline will happen.
      • Right now in the United States, most states have an estimated Rt of between 0.75 and 0.98. A handful of states have Rt above 1, but even the highest – Minnesota this week – is only at 1.05.
    • In most places, if we kept doing what we’ve been doing for long enough, the disease would slowly, slowly decline, potentially to zero
      • The three important points about this are these:
        1. The decline to zero would take a long time. Months and months. And months.
        1. Along the way, more and more people would be getting infected, and some of them would die. The total number of people infected at any one moment would be declining, but the actual people suffering would keep changing.
        1. As soon as we change what we’re doing about social distancing, hygiene, and quarantining, Rt will change as well, almost certainly by going up.
      • A problem for many of the reopening scenarios is that they assume that there is a threshold density below which students (or workers) returning to campuses (or offices) will be “safe” and above which they won’t be. But at least for now, there isn’t. For now, the less contact infected people have with others, the safer it will be[3]. It’s not a threshold. It’s a continuum.
    • If we want to reach the thresholds of *safe* or *normal*, we will need better solutions
      • For example, we could reopen higher-density settings, including campuses, (fairly) safely if we could test everyone daily, trace their contacts, and quarantine anyone who tests positive. But we can’t [4]. We could reach a threshold of something like normal if we had a safe, effective, and widely available vaccine. But we don’t.
    • As we plan the details of when and how to reopen more spaces and activities going forward, we face two critical issues.
      • How to lower the risks as much as possible
        • This involves
          • finding ways to maximize both hygiene (think masks, hand sanitizer, and extra cleanings) and distancing (think single-occupancy spaces, and socially-distant cafeterias).
          • We must also have a workable plan for what to do when people inevitably become sick. How do we detect infected people quickly, and how do we responsibly and efficiently identify their contacts? For colleges and universities, how do we quarantine sick students?
          • And how do we protect the most vulnerable?
      • Determining what level of risk is acceptable
        • With the tools we currently have, it’s not a question of whether creating lower-density campuses or businesses is safe. It’s a question of whether it’s safe enough. That’s not a scientific question, and it doesn’t have a scientific answer.
      • ❗R t versus R nought ❗
        • The effective reproduction number Rt is different from Ro (R-nought), though they’re related. Ro is the number of cases that would arise if an infected person was in a population in which everyone else was susceptible to infection. In theory at least, it’s an immutable property of a pathogen. In contrast, when some people are immune, through prior exposure or vaccination, or when people take active steps to reduce transmission (like washing hands or social-distancing or wearing masks), we need a different number. That’s Rt. It’s a measure of the number of new cases that are actually arising from each infected person, and it can change based on our behavior.

The Future of Feeding Ourselves

Food for Thought: Can we continue to rely on the decades-old means of growing, harvesting, shipping and buying fruits, vegetables, meats, dairy and other products when COVID-19 impedes this complex web of frail links in every segment of the grocery-chain?

This article appeared in the Floyd Press (Floyd, VA) on April 31, 2020.

If you read it there, you probably did NOT go to the resources page, and you should at least give a look for links to planting, gardening and online ordering for local food.

Feeding ourselves through and beyond the current contagion must take on a new priority right away.

The COVID-19 pandemic is creating previously unknown problems we must deal with regarding all aspects of food and eating. It has exacerbated existing deficiencies in the commerce and consumption of food; and it has caused consumers and land-stewards to look again at the agri-business history of broken links in the chain between fertile soil and hungry bellies.

Let’s take a quick look at threats to our food supply, and then consider food choices we can make now that require the fewest food miles, provide the highest nutrition and offer the healthiest means for us to buy and eat local food, and all this, while supporting our farmer-neighbors.

The present and future impacts of COVID-19 on our at-risk food supply are many. In this short space, we can only paint concerns in the “grocery cycle” with a broad brush. What might go wrong?

–Border issues and COVID19 risks brings about a lack of workers to plant and pick

–Timing failures in harvest, shipping, shelving and purchase of perishables

–Lack of healthy truckers to transport food across the continent

–Bottlenecks in supply chain fail to route shipments to areas of greatest need or workers (meatpackers etc.) become infected creating weak links in delivery channels.

–A rigidly-structured food system fails to repurpose product for end-buyers- — from empty cruise ships, universities, restaurants and Disney World to local grocery stores where demand is high.

–Food protectionism suspends exports and prevents imports

And looking at the consequences of just this short and partial list of issues, the likely outcomes include:

–Massive Food waste. Fresh vegetables being turned into mulch. Millions of gallons of milk being dumped. Slaughterhouses idled by sick workers.

–Maldistribution of available food not reaching the most needy and at-risk

— And soon to come: Much reduced variety for non-local and out of season fruits and vegetables, and…

–Worsening shortages and a significant increase in food prices

In the midst of these concerns and increasing agri-biz dysfunction, a revolution is rapidly unfolding in the local-foods landscape. Online orders have increased enormously, nationwide, in the past two months.

Access to locally-grown and available meats, cheese, fruits and vegetables has become a digital priority. With the requirements for social distancing, plans are being made by individual providers to take online orders and provide for safe exchange in the US, including Floyd county.

The existing social and natural resources in rural SWVA put us in good position to take immediate action in this time of urgent need to move ourselves back towards food sovereignty and security.

The season for The Floyd Victory Garden has arrived. And our local farmers and gardeners can help both nourish and educate us in this community effort to feed ourselves. What can we do now?

— Use the Floyd Market Guide to find local vendors, many of whom have online ordering. Support our Food Champions and join them working the soil.

— Learn how you can shop safely with social distancing at our Farmers Market, opening May 2.

— Find out what the needs are for donations to local food banks such as Plenty! where volunteer services are complicated by COVID19.

— Ramp up your backyard garden with extra rows for surplus to give to neighbors. Ask for help and information for tending larger and more productive gardens and orchards. Let’s do it now!

You can view and/or download helpful information on these food-centric actions and more at this link: https://www.are.na/fred-first/food-beyond-the-pandemic