Fragments From Floyd

Expect "Chaos and Panic", says a group of journalists.

"A new report finds that journalists covering public health issues see a government and society that is "thoroughly unprepared" for a pandemic flu outbreak."

I still follow the stranger-than-fiction development in the avian flu situation, as I have since fall semester, 2004. That is when one of my biology students told me that his uncle, a chicken farmer on the Chesapeake, told him that bird flu was the animal disease to watch. I'd never really given it much attention until then, but began investigating the status of a variant called H5N1. And the more I looked into it, even at that early stage when the virus was pretty much under the popular radar, the more serious the potential seemed for this virus to at least cause economic hardships in a world with increasing dependency on poultry as a protein source.

The problem has not and will not go away. It may never reach the *worst-case scenario that is known to be possible. But it seems this bird virus will become globally present in the wild bird population for years? decades? forever? And as such, the potential to mutate or recombine and pass human-to-human with some degree of ease becomes more likely. It will just be one of those impending risks that hang over our heads and those of generations to come that we will have to be aware, plan for, and overcome.

Meanwhile, some recent blips on the bird flu radar:

How Did Seven Family Members Get Infected With Bird Flu? "We still don't know how seven members of the same family in Indonesia became infected with the H5N1 bird flu virus strain. Six of them have died. It is vital to know whether some of them infected each other. If they did, this would mean that the virus might be changing."

Bird Flu Mortality Rate Rises Bird flu has killed 64 percent of those people known to be infected with the virus this year, according to World Health Organization statistics, with the number of fatalities since Jan. 1 surpassing 2005 levels." (The rate is currently 78% in Indonesia, perhaps the most likely place for origin of human-to-human transmission.)

Contaminated water might spread bird flu to humans Open water such as reservoirs, lakes or rivers which have been contaminated by infected migratory birds might be able to spread the H5N1 bird flu virus to humans who drink or swim in the water, but there is insufficient data to be sure concludes a recent World Health Organization report.

And from a comment at Effect Measure: It is also worth noting that H5N1 has not decreased it's killing ability even as cluster sizes have increased. I continue to maintain that the 1918 pandemic kill rate is not the *worst case scenario. It is entirely possible that H5N1 could become a pandemic strain with its current kill rate. That is the real worst case scenario.

And finally, from the Daily Kos, a summary of recent events and possible interpreations.