May 31, 2003

Little Fish Dilution Factor

John Dvorak, writing in PC Magazine, touts blogs as "the next big thing". Duh. He makes the following prediction...

Let me stop here for a moment and make some specific predictions. Within the next year, both David Letterman and Jay Leno will make jokes about blogs and even discuss them. "Nightline" will do an entire show on blogging. San Jose journalist and blog promoter Dan Gillmor will be a guest for the episode. This is the point where blogging will become mainstream. Shortly thereafter, we will see blogging millionaires, as venture capitalists figure out ways to make money from the trend.

He allows as there is some merit in one or two weblogs, like Boing-Boing...

... But the vanity sites such as Anti-Bloggies are just asking for ridicule. Who can resist? This is especially true now that the cat fanciers and ersatz poets have come on strong in the blog world.

As both a cat fancier and an ersatz poet and cloud-watcher, I expect any day to get my nomination for my Anti-bloggie award, and am preparing my acceptance speech. I could really use that one-Mill, too, John. Email me and tell me how you see blogs producing such wealth.

How do you feel about 'blogs as the next big thing'? Dvorak guesses that soon, Microsoft will incorporate blogs into MSN, and I wonder if maybe the next step will be to slip a Microsoft blog tool into Outlook Express one or two generations down the line.

Frankly, I already am feeling like the vital essence in a homeopathic dilution, Fragments among 10,000 weblogs listed on Blogstreet a year ago, one of over 130,000 last time I checked; and this only the tip of the iceberg.

Maybe the correction for the dilution factor is to concentrate weblogs and webloggers by communities, so like can find like in this growing bable of blog. Our "Blogs about Place" community is taking shape at just about the right time, I think, and you can look for more of this affinity-grouping to take place in the future as Jay Leno hypes the A-listers and the smell of $$$ takes mainstream blogdom places I don't want to go. See you in a small pond, coming soon to your weblogging neighborhood.

Posted by fred1st at May 31, 2003 05:28 AM | TrackBack

The term mainstream blogdom is kinda funny when you think about it....99.999% of the blogosphere is totally under the mainstream radar. Millions of bloggers never read any of the uber blogs. I've visited hundreds of blogs that have blogrolls full of links that I have never heard of...not a single Insta among them. One can spend days bouncing from blogroll to blogroll.

Blogging is getting it's 15 mintues of media fame because a tiny percent are burrs under the national media's saddle. The media will pronounce blogging dead and most bloggers will never know or care.

In ten years since the Net went mainstream many concepts have come and gone. Wasn't too long ago that USENET was "the" communication tool. IRC had it's day in the media sun. Will blogs remain the Vox Populi? Hard to say...depends on the next "killer app. *G*

Posted by: feste at June 1, 2003 12:49 AM

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